Fossilised farts (and other agroGHGs)! Part 2: The expansion of Livestock and the debate around the Anthropocene.

Now, studies by Brook et al. (1996); Schlit et al. (2010); Sowers (2010); Burns (2011); Singrayer et al. (2011) and Wolff (2011) all show ice core records and other proxies (analogues for past environmental records) like speleothem (calcite deposits) to show CH₄ and other GHGs like N₂O over the Holocene (11 ka BP; Sowers, 2010) to 140 ka (Schlit et al. 2010). These records show the link between precessional cycles and CH₄ concentrations; but up until 5 ka, the CH₄ concentration deviated from what is expected due to the precessional cycle. The NH has been at an insolation minima due to the precessional cycle being in a NH negative stage (i.e. the southern hemisphere, SH, has more intense summers and winters).

This discrepancy between expected and observed therefore does not follow the natural process. Now shoot me if you must, but I agree with research put forward by Ruddiman, and I am joining in the argument/debate on the Anthropocene. In an article by Ruddiman et al. in a special issue Holocene published in June 2011 (where some of the other 2011 articles from Holocene are taken) attempts to falsify anthropogenic and natural increases in CO₂ and CH₄. The case states that only one other (stage 11) deglaciation has a similar increase in methane after the initial peak and decreasing tail (which would be due to a natural or at least non-anthropogenic process). All of the records (except stage 11) show a decrease of CH₄ in line with NH summer insolation minima. Stage 1 (our current Holocene/Anthropocene) does not follow this trend. Due to the rise and spread of humans through the globe, the establishment of civilisations and the first age of modernity through agricultural development, Ruddiman et al. (2011) and Fuller et al. (2011) show that it is expansion of agricultural practices of wet-rice farming and livestock intensification which is responsible for the anomalous rise in atmospheric methane contribution. This is significant for this blog as it shows (even among scientists like myself… ok I am only a student) humans have had an effect on the greater environment and the Earth’s ecosystems through a variety of anthropogenic process; relating this to livestock they include deforestation (increasing CO₂) and increased agricultural production (increasing CH₄ and later with the green revolution N₂O). This rise is evident 5 ka; that is why I believe that humans have had a significant impact on the earth before 250 yrs BP, it’s been 5 ka that’s how far the Anthropocene extends. This is shown in the graph taken from Fuller et al. 2011. 

Graph showing CH₄ predicted (NH insolation records) and measured CH₄ in GRIP ice core over time.

The Fuller et al. (2011) article looks at agricultural (pastoral and arable) contributions to prehistoric methane levels, using archaeological evidence to match it to the GHG records. This graph from their article shows the deviation from the predicted methane concentrations from the GRIP ice core. The black square points represent actual methane concentrations. The difference between the two data sets is ‘potentially’ cow farts and other anthropogenic processes (causing the deviation). They go deeper, investigating the spatial distribution of the technologies and knowledge of the more intensive (and greater GHG producing) agricultural techniques over time. Here are some maps showing the expansion of livestock practices:

Southern and Eastern Asia Livestock technique dispersal Fuller et al. 2011

Africa Livestock technique dispersal Fuller et al. 2011 

Southern Asia Livestock technique dispersal Fuller et al. 2011

The increased expansion of these farming practices means that more food was able to be cultivated, for direct food (like rice) or indirect food (like livestock feed).  This archaeological evidence shows the actual distribution of the increasing anthropogenic CH₄ sources. Another integral point (that will be elaborated on in part 3 of Fossilised farts) is the fact that the inter-polar gradient (IPG) between ice core records of CH­₄ concentration in Greenland and Antarctica begin to equate (Chappellaz et al., 1997; Burns, 2011). If for instance the NH boreal arctic polar circumference began to emit greater amounts of CH₄, then Greenland’s ice cores will have a greater concentration of the gas than Antarctica’s cores due to the proximity and difficulty of inter-polar diffusion. The fact that the IPG is levelling out shows that the source is low latitude; agricultural expansion into Africa, Southern Asia and South-Eastern Asia can be an explanation to this. Coupled with greater CH₄ emissions from the amazion basin (due to a stronger SH summer) and other low latitude CH₄ sources; this could explain the 5 ka rise.